Re: what bad results? USDA report

[wytze <geno@zap.a2000.nl>]

I wonder if  prof. Roush has read Charles Benbrook's report on this matter?




Rick Roush wrote:

> >Herve wrote:
> >While looking for the exact reference in News Scientist for the bad
> >results of
> >GMcrops
>
> What bad results?  The USDA report at
>
> http://www.econ.ag.gov/whatsnew/issues/biotech/
>
> shows that:
>        Use of Bt cotton and Bt corn is associated with significantly higher
> yields in most years for some regions. Herbicide tolerance in soybeans is
> associated with significantly higher yields in some regions in 1997.
>
>        In 1997, herbicide-tolerant technology significantly reduced
> herbicide treatments for soybeans and, to a lesser extent, for cotton.
> Fewer insecticide treatments for the target pests were required for Bt corn
> and cotton.
>
> +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
> USDA/ERS letter in response to recent news coverage of data report
> www.econ.ag.gov
>
> This note is to call your attention to a new  piece on the ERS Web site. The
> new piece presents a lay-accessible summary of research conducted to test
> for differences in yields and pesticide use between adopters and nonadopters
> of GMO seed, when other variable factors are held constant.  The analyses on
> which this new piece reports rely on exactly the same data as that made
> available by the earlier piece.  It provides a more refined and reliable
> indication of whether and how it may be expected that some currently
> available GMO seed technology will interact with site-specific and farmer
> characteristics to, eventually, affect farmers and the environment.
>
> To view the new piece, "Impacts of Adopting Genetically Engineered Crops in
> the U.S. * Preliminary Results," please go to the following url.
>
> http://www.econ.ag.gov/whatsnew/issues/gmo/index.htm
>
> Impacts of Adopting Genetically Engineered Crops
> in the U.S. -- Preliminary Results
>
> July 20, 1999
>
> Genetic engineering is a technique used to alter or move genetic material
> (genes) of living cells. (A number of the terms used in this article are
> defined in Agricultural Biotechnology Concepts and Definitions). U.S.
> acreage using genetically engineered crops has increased from about 8
> million acres in 1996 to more than 50 million acres in 1998, in major
> states where data have been collected (see Genetically Engineered Crops for
> Pest Management, also in this Issues Center). Has adoption of this
> technology benefited farmers and the environment?
>
> Answering this question is not easy, even though survey data have been
> collected on the characteristics and performance of farms adopting biotech
> crops. Attributing differences in yields, pesticide use, and profits
> between adopters and nonadopters observed in the data solely to adoption of
> genetically engineered crops is nearly impossible because many other
> factors also affect yield and pesticide use. For example, producers with
> more favorable soils and climate may have higher yields than those
> operating under less favorable conditions, whether they used
> herbicide-tolerant varieties or not. Producers in areas of greater pest
> pressure may use more pesticide applications than those
> with fewer pest problems, despite adopting Bt crops.
>
> However, the impacts of GMO (Genetically Modified Organisms) adoption can
> be explored by statistically controlling for other factors that also affect
> the impact. Multivariate regression modeling in effect decomposes the
> influence various factors exert on the decision to adopt GMO technology,
> and the influence of other factors on yields, pesticide use, and variable
> profits. This report summarizes preliminary findings from such models using
> 1997 survey data. ....
>
> Impacts From Adopting Herbicide-Tolerant Crops
>
> Cotton production relies heavily upon herbicides to control weeds, often
> requiring applications of two or more herbicides at planting and
> postemergence herbicides later in the season. Close to 28 million pounds of
> herbicides were applied to 97 percent of the 13 million acres devoted to
> upland cotton production in the 12 major states in 1997. In 1997, increases
> in adoption of herbicide-tolerant cotton are estimated to have increased
> yields, leading to increased variable profits (see Table 1, Impact of
> Adoption of Herbicide-Tolerant and Insect-Resistant Crops). However, no
> statistically significant change in herbicide use on cotton was observed in
> 1997.
>
> By contrast, increased use of herbicide-tolerant soybeans (17 percent of
> 1997 soybean acres) produced only a small increase in yield, and no
> significant change in variable profits in 1997.  Soybean production in the
> U.S. uses a large amount of herbicides, and 97 percent of the 66.2 million
> acres devoted to soybean production in the 19 major states were treated
> with more than 78
> million pounds of herbicides in 1997. Genetic engineering produces
> tolerance to glyphosate herbicide in soybeans, of which 15 million pounds
> were used in 1997. However, almost two-thirds of the herbicides used on
> soybeans were other synthetic materials. As GMO adoption increased, use of
> glyphosate herbicide (such as RoundupŠ) also increased but use of other
> synthetic herbicides
> decreased by a larger amount. The net result was a decrease in the overall
> pounds of herbicide  applied.
>
> Impacts From Adopting Insect-Resistant Cotton
>
> Cotton production uses a large amount of insecticides and 77 percent of the
> 13 million acres devoted to upland cotton production in the 12 major states
> were treated with 18 million pounds of insecticides in 1997. Malathion was
> the top insecticide used on cotton, with farmers applying more than 7
> million pounds of this chemical in 1997. Aldicarb was second (2.4 million
> pounds), followed by methyl parathion (2 million pounds), and acephate (0.9
> million pounds).
>
> In 1997, an increase in adoption of Bt cotton in the Southeast (to 22
> percent of cotton acres) led to an increase in cotton yields and variable
> profits (see Table 1, Impact of Adoption of Herbicide-Tolerant and
> Insect-Resistant Crops). While use of organophosphate insecticides and
> pyrethroid insecticides did not have significant changes associated with an
> increase in Bt adoption,
> there was a significant decrease in other insecticides, such as aldicarb.
>
> Summary
>
> Statistically controlling for factors other than adoption of genetically
> engineered seeds allows an understanding of the likely impacts of marginal
> changes in adoption on yields, profits, and pesticide use. Impacts vary
> with the crop and technology examined. Increases in adoption of
> herbicide-tolerant cotton were associated with significant increases in
> yields and variable profits, but were not associated with significant
> changes in herbicide use. Increases in adoption of herbicide-tolerant
> soybeans were associated with small increases in yields and variable
> profits, and significant decreases in herbicide use. Increases in adoption
> of Bt cotton resistant to insects in the Southeast were associated with
> significant increases in yields and profits and decreased insecticide use.
>
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