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2-Plants: New U.S. forecasts on GE crop planting



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http://www.usda.gov/nass/PUBS/TODAYRPT/pspl0303.txt

Cr Pr 2-4  (3-03)

Prospective Plantings

National Agricultural Statistics Service
USDA
Washington, D.C.


Released March 31, 2003, by the National Agricultural Statistics Service
(NASS), Agricultural Statistics Board, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
For information on "Prospective Plantings" call  (202) 720-2127, office
hours 7:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET.


Corn Planted Acreage Virtually Unchanged from 2002
Soybean Acreage Down 1 Percent
All Wheat Acreage Up 2 Percent
All Cotton Acreage Up 2 Percent


Corn growers intend to plant 79.0 million acres of corn for all purposes
in 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002 but 4 percent above 2001. Expected
acreage is up in the eastern Corn Belt as growers are switching back to
corn after planting soybeans last year when persistent wet weather in the
spring prevented them from seeding corn.  However, all States in the
Great Plains, except North Dakota, are decreasing their intended corn
plantings as continued drought conditions are expected to persist into
the 2003 crop year.

Soybean growers intend to plant an estimated 73.2 million acres of
soybeans, down 1 percent from last year and, if realized, the lowest
planted area since 1998.  This is the third consecutive year that soybean
acreage has declined in the United States.  Growers in most of the Corn
Belt and central Great Plains States intend to plant fewer acres in 2003.
 Expected increases in acreage, offsetting some to the decreases were
located in the northern Great Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Atlantic
Coast, and Delta regions.

All wheat planted area is expected to total 61.7 million acres in 2003, 
up 2 percent from 2002.   Winter wheat planted area for the 2003 crop is
44.3 million acres, up 6 percent from 2002.  Of the total, about 31.9
million acres are Hard Red Winter, 8.2 million acres Soft Red Winter, and
4.2 million acres White Winter.  The 2003 other spring wheat planted
acreage is estimated at 14.6 million, down 7 percent from last year.  Of
the total, about 13.8 million acres are Hard Red Spring wheat.  Area
planted to Durum wheat is intended to total 2.83 million acres, down 3
percent from a year ago.

All Cotton plantings for 2003 are expected to total 14.3 million acres, 2
percent above last year.  Upland acreage is expected to total 14.1
million acres, a 2 percent increase from 2002.  Producers in the
Southeast region and Arizona intend to decrease acreage from last year.
All other cotton producing States intend to increase planted acreage,
except for Oklahoma growers who intend to plant the same acreage as last
year.  American-Pima cotton growers intend to decrease their plantings to
200,000 acres, down 18 percent from 2002.  The decrease is primarily in
California, where producers are intending to plant 40,000 acres less than
last year.


This report was approved on March 31, 2003.

Secretary of
Agriculture
Ann M. Veneman

Agricultural Statistics Board
Chairperson
Rich Allen


Contents

Page
[...]
Corn . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .4
  Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Cotton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
  Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
[...]
Soybeans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
  Biotechnology Varieties. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
[...]

Biotechnology Varieties
 
The National Agricultural Statistics Service conducts the March
Agricultural Survey in all States each year.  Randomly selected farmers
across the United States were asked what they intend to plant during the
upcoming growing season. Questions include whether or not farmers intend
to plant corn, soybean, or upland cotton seed that, through
biotechnology, is resistant to herbicides, insects, or both. The
biotechnology (biotech) questions were asked for the first time in March
2000. The States published individually in the following tables represent
81 percent of all corn planted acres, 89 percent of all soybean planted
acres, and 81 percent of all upland cotton planted acres.
 
Conventionally bred herbicide resistant varieties were excluded. Insect
resistant varieties include only those containing bacillus thuringiensis
(Bt). Stacked gene varieties include those containing biotech traits for
both herbicide and insect resistance.

The acreage estimates are subject to sampling variability because all
operations planting biotech varieties are not included in the sample. The
variability for the 48 corn States, as measured by the relative standard
error at the U.S. level, is approximately 1.4 percent for all biotech
varieties, 2.0 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only varieties, 3.4
percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 5.7 percent for
stacked gene varieties. This means that chances are approximately 95 out
of 100 that survey estimates will be within plus or minus 2.8 percent for
all biotech varieties, 4.0 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only
varieties, 6.8 percent for herbicide resistant varieties, and 11.4
percent for stacked gene varieties. Variability for the 31 soybean States
is approximately 0.7 percent for herbicide resistant varieties.
Variability for the 17 upland cotton States is approximately 1.3 percent
for all biotech varieties, 6.1 percent for insect resistant (Bt) only
varieties, 4.2 percent for herbicide resistant only varieties, and 4.3
percent for stacked gene varieties.
 
 
                   Corn: Biotechnology Varieties by State and
              United States, Percent of All Corn Planted, 2002-2003
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      Insect Resistant (Bt)      :        Herbicide Resistant
   State  :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      2002      :      2003      :      2002       :      2003
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :                               Percent
          :
IL        :       18               24                3                 4
IN        :        7                7                6                 5
IA        :       31               38                7                 5
KS        :       25               25               15                17
MI        :       12               13                8                 9
MN        :       29               35               11                10
MO        :       27               29                6                 8
NE        :       34               40                9                11
OH        :        6                7                3                 3
SD        :       33               35               23                23
WI        :       15               21                9                 9
          :
Oth Sts 1/:       14               16               12                13
          :
US        :       22               26                9                 9
          :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :     Stacked Gene Varieties      :       All Biotech Varieties
          :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      2002      :      2003      :      2002       :      2003
          :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :                               Percent
          :
IL        :        1                1               22                29
IN        :        *                1               13                13
IA        :        3                4               41                47
KS        :        2                2               43                44
MI        :        2                1               22                23
MN        :        4                6               44                51
MO        :        2                3               34                40
NE        :        4                4               46                55
OH        :        *                *                9                10
SD        :       10               14               66                72
WI        :        2                2               26                32
          :
Oth Sts 1/:        2                2               27                31
          :
US        :        2                3               34                38
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
*  Data rounds to less than 0.5 percent.
1/ Other States includes all other States in the Corn estimating program.
 
 
               Upland Cotton: Biotechnology Varieties by State and
           United States, Percent of Upland Cotton Planted, 2002-2003
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      Insect Resistant (Bt)      :        Herbicide Resistant
   State  :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      2002      :      2003      :      2002       :      2003
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :                               Percent
          :
AR        :       27               34               37                19
CA        :        6                4               26                28
GA        :        8               11               55                35
LA        :       27               31                9                14
MS        :       19               12               22                18
NC        :       14               12               27                38
TX        :        7               15               40                30
          :
Oth Sts 1/:       19               18               35                35
          :
US        :       13               16               36                30
          :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :     Stacked Gene Varieties      :       All Biotech Varieties
          :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      2002      :      2003      :      2002       :      2003
          :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :                               Percent
          :
AR        :       26               39               90                92
CA        :        1                1               33                33
GA        :       30               43               93                89
LA        :       49               43               85                88
MS        :       47               48               88                78
NC        :       45               41               86                91
TX        :        4                5               51                50
          :
Oth Sts 1/:       32               33               86                86
          :
US        :       22               24               71                70
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
1/ Other States includes all other States in the Upland Cotton estimating
    program.
 
 
                 Soybeans: Biotechnology Varieties by State and
            United States, Percent of All Soybeans Planted, 2002-2003
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :    Herbicide Resistant Only     :       All Biotech Varieties
   State  :--------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :      2002      :      2003      :      2002       :      2003
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
          :                               Percent
          :
AR        :       68               79               68                79
IL        :       71               78               71                78
IN        :       83               91               83                91
IA        :       75               82               75                82
KS        :       83               84               83                84
MI        :       72               73               72                73
MN        :       71               75               71                75
MS        :       80               81               80                81
MO        :       72               80               72                80
NE        :       85               87               85                87
ND        :       61               70               61                70
OH        :       73               74               73                74
SD        :       89               90               89                90
WI        :       78               79               78                79
          :
Oth Sts 1/:       70               75               70                75
          :
US        :       75               80               75                80
-------------------------------------
-------------------------------------------
1/ Other States includes all other States in the Soybean estimating program.
 
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